SUMMARY
New data shows consumer confidence and home prices rose, possible signs of further economic recovery. But other numbers show that growth remains slow. Judy Woodruff talks to Harvard University's Kenneth Rogoff and PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian on what are the most important data indicators to gauge the economic temperature.
新的數據顯示,消費者信心和房屋價格上漲,可能出現的經濟進一步復甦的跡象。但是其他的數字表明,經濟增長仍然緩慢。Judy Woodruff跟哈佛大學的 Kenneth Rogoff 和PIMCO CEO Mohamed El-Erian對談,對什麼是最重要的數據指標來衡量經濟溫度。
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JUDY WOODRUFF: With less
than a week left before the first presidential debate, both candidates remained
focused today on persuading voters they can boost the economy.
But a key question at the heart of it
all, is the economy slowing, stalling, or perhaps even gaining strength in some
ways? New data are sending conflicting signs.
Republican presidential nominee Mitt
Romney campaigned today at a military academy in Pennsylvania. Romney promised
better jobs for young people like the cadets sitting behind him and a better
future for the entire country.
MITT ROMNEY (R): We're in a very different
road than what I think the people of the world expected for the United States
of America. And if I'm elected president of this country, I will get us back on
a road of growth and prosperity and strength.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
JUDY WOODRUFF: Today, at a
campaign event in Washington, President Obama shared a message of what he
called economic patriotism tied to a strong middle class.
PRESIDENT BARACK OBAMA: But our
problems can be solved. Our challenges can be met. We have still got the
workers in the world, the best universities, the best scientists, the best --
we got the best stuff.
(LAUGHTER)
BARACK OBAMA: We just
got to bring it together.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Consumer
confidence is higher of late, and the president may be getting a boost from
voter attitudes.
An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll
out last week found 42 percent of Americans think the economy will improve in
the next year. That's six points higher than a month ago; 18 percent say the
economy will worsen, and almost a third expect it to stay the same.
The Obama campaign is also pointing to
some revised job numbers to make its case. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
said yesterday there were nearly 400,000 more jobs created in the previous year
that ended in March. That would mean that there are a higher number of jobs
than when President Obama took office.
But the U.S. still has four million
fewer jobs since before the collapse of the financial sector. There's other
sobering data as well, showing a still sluggish recovery. The Commerce Department
revised its estimate of second-quarter economic growth down yesterday from 1.7
percent.
Mitt Romney seized on the change in
Springfield, Va.
MITT ROMNEY: We are at 1.3 percent. This is
-- this is unacceptable.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Other
economic indicators also paint a mixed picture.
The stock market itself, while down
today, has been climbing in recent weeks, to its highest levels in nearly five
years.
Today, the Dow Jones industrial
average lost almost 49 points after a weak manufacturing report and worries
over Europe, to close just over 13,437.
And the housing market may be
stabilizing. A key index showed home prices rose in July to the highest level in
almost two years, pointing to a recovery there.
Consumer spending was also up last
month, but it was largely to pay for higher gasoline prices.
For a closer look at all this with two people who follow
these things closely, we turn to Kenneth Rogoff, a professor of economics and
public policy at Harvard University, and co-author of "This Time, It's
Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly."
And Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO, a
global investment management firm, one of world's largest investors.
Gentlemen, thank you, to both of you,
for being with us.
Mohamed El-Erian, let me start with
you. There is so much information coming in, but it's not all pointing in the
same direction. How do you see the strength of the economy?
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN, PIMCO: So,
Judy, you're right. It's mixed information. If you were to bring it all
together, we believe it points to a really sluggish economy.
By that, we mean growth of 1 percent.
And there are both external and internal reasons for that. Externally, the
headwinds are considerable. China is slowing. Europe is still in a debt crisis.
Internally, we are still dealing with
the legacy of the financial crisis. We have had basically no policy-making out
of Congress now for a long time.
And to make things even worse, the
healthy parts of the economy, and there are quite a few, the healthy parts are
not engaging because they're waiting to see how the fiscal cliff and other
things are going to work out, so sluggish economy with the risk of stalled
speed.
JUDY WOODRUFF: So, Ken
Rogoff, is sluggish the main word you would use?
KENNETH ROGOFF, Harvard
University: I think Mohamed El-Erian gave a pretty good description of what's
going on.
I do think next year might look a
little better. But I don't think we're going to be having fast growth for a
very long time. The uncertainty around the world, in Europe, in the United
States, in China is one thing.
The huge debt legacy from the
financial crisis is another and the growing government debt.
That said, I mean, I wouldn't
underestimate the upside, with the U.S. being such a creative economy. For
example, energy prices have fallen a lot. And there are some other things you
can point to on the upside.
But, so far, businesses have been very
reluctant to invest heavily, very reluctant to hire heavily.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Mohamed
El-Erian, what do you see -- when you look at all this data coming in, what is
most important to you?
MOHAMED A. EL-ERIAN: A few
things, first, the employment picture, and not just whether we're creating jobs
or not -- that's important -- but also what's happening to those who remain
unemployed.
And that is a pretty worrisome
picture. That's why I call it a crisis, because long-term unemployment is
really high and youth unemployment is really high. And these are longer-term
issues that we need to deal with. So the employment picture is very important.
Second, clarity for businesses. Today,
no -- and do they have the confidence to invest? There is a ton of money, Judy,
on the sideline, a ton of money. And if we can engage that money into the
system, it will be great.
And then, third, as Ken rightly said,
the global economy. We are facing severe headwinds. So a number of things to
look at, and, as President Obama said in the report, if we manage to get --
bring things together, this economy can sprint. But it requires quite a bit of
political work to bring things together.
JUDY WOODRUFF: We will pick
up on that, Ken Rogoff. What would it take? And I'm curious about what you see
that makes you think things could get better next year.
KENNETH ROGOFF: Well, this
is just a very creative economy. And it's easier, especially for us economists,
to see what can go wrong than to think of these out-of-the-box things,
technology, the way globalization works, that can go right.
Certainly, though, there is still --
the housing is a problem. It's been stabilizing. I think that's been one of the
good things, but there are still a lot of mortgages underwater. Consumer
confidence is up, but I wouldn't count on it being so good that it's going to
be getting us to 4 percent growth, to where we're feeling really good.
What I would like to see? Well, first
of all, I would like to see tax reform in a way that keeps rates reasonable --
I don't know if they can be lowered -- and gets rid of deductions.
I would like to see spending on
infrastructure that really is going to help us grow. I would like to see
improvements in education.
Policy has been stalled for an
extended period and a changing world. And we need to catch up. We have to
prepare not just for having next year be good, but the next 10 years, the next
20 years.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Mohamed
El-Erian, you talked a -- you spoke a minute ago about the money that's sitting
on the sidelines. And I hear Ken Rogoff referring to that, too.
What is it going to take that shake
that loose, to make people feel more confident, to make business owners feel
that it's a good thing to invest?
MOHAMED A. EL-ERIAN: It's
going to take what Ken said. And, critically, it's about a number of items that
have to be addressed simultaneously.
You know, we like this notion maybe
there's a shortcut, maybe there is a killer app, maybe there is this one thing.
Well, there isn't.
It's taken us years to get into this
mess. It's going to take us years to get out.
And we only get out through
simultaneous progress on a number of areas. So, Ken spoke to fiscal reform. He
spoke to infrastructure. He spoke to education.
I would add labor retraining and
retooling. And I would also add fixing the credit pipes of this economy. So
it's a long list. It requires simultaneous progress. And the longer we wait,
Judy, the harder it gets.
JUDY WOODRUFF: And to end
on a negative question, I guess, Ken Rogoff, what would prevent all of those
things from happening?
KENNETH ROGOFF: Boy. Well,
gridlock in Washington.
We could have no budget still in
January. That's not going to be good for investment.
Europe has temporarily stabilized, but
it looks pretty shaky if you are standing in Spain or Greece. The Chinese
economy is not only slowing, it's in a political transition that no one knows
how it's going to play out. The Middle East.
Like I said, Judy, there are lots of
things we can think of that can go wrong. But I do think there is a balance
because it is a very creative economy. There are also things that can go right.
JUDY WOODRUFF: So, just
finally to both of you, Mohamed El-Erian, as you put all this together, and you
look at the beginning of 2013, 2014, what do you see?
MOHAMED A. EL-ERIAN: So,
the first thing is, I tell the politicians, please remove the fiscal cliff,
because if the fiscal cliff occurs, and we get 4 percent of GDP disorderly cuts
in spending and then across-the-board increase in taxes, the U.S. will go into
recession.
So, the first thing is, do no harm.
Second is, if we can get over that, I
see an economy gradually picking up momentum. It's not going to be great. We're
going to -- we're going to create jobs, not enough to really lower the
unemployment issue. And, hopefully, we're going to start dealing with these
longer-term issues.
So, like Ken, the thing I find most
frustrating, Judy, is this is not a complicated issue. We can handle this. We
can unleash the innovation, the entrepreneurship, the cash that is on the
sideline. But it requires a political will and political coordination.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Ken Rogoff,
quick last word.
KENNETH ROGOFF: Well, I
mean, I think that the thing that confuses people is, we're not going to go off
the fiscal cliff, but what direction are we going to go?
There's such different visions coming
from the Republicans and the Democrats. Frankly, I think if either were to win
decisively, it would be better off than having no policy. But we don't know
what direction we're going. I think that is really what the issue is.
JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, on
that question mark note, we will end it.
Ken Rogoff, Mohamed El-Erian, we thank
you both.
KENNETH ROGOFF: Thank you.
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